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A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate

The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.

Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."

Request for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster must join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."