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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.

Persistent Threats

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.

With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.

Every new approach from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.

Political Considerations

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.

Current Realities

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.

These two forces are driving the talks.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.